Weather update for Monday – Wednesday, Sep 18 – 20

There has been no significant change in weather forecast for our neighborhood as Hurricane Jose moves north offshore, roughly parallel to the East Coast.

Our current forecast calls for:

MONDAY, Sep 18:  Cloudy; high temp 76 deg; 20% chance of precipitation; 10 MPH winds.

TUESDAY, Sep 19:  Cloudy; high temp 78 deg; 20% chance of precipitation; 16 MPH winds.

WEDNESDAY, Sep 20:  Cloudy; high temp 85 deg; 10% chance of precipitation; 9 MPH winds.

Check the National Hurricane Center for Jose’s progress and forecasts.

Hurricane Jose may affect us Monday-Tuesday, Sep 18 – 19

As of 5:00 PM EDT, Friday, September 15, National Hurricane Center projections suggest our neighborhood may receive winds in the 10 – 20 MPH range from Hurricane Jose as the storm moves through the Atlantic paralleling the East Coast.  While the storm is not forecast to make landfall, we are in the warning cone for winds, possibly accompanied by rain.

Here is Jose’s forecast track as of 5:00 PM EDT, Friday, Sep 15.

jose warnings

 

Here is a forecast of wind speeds.  Note we are in the 10 – 20 MPH wind speed band.

TS force winds probabliity

 

This chart is an experimental depiction of wind arrival times, indicating we may experience winds throughout the day Monday, Sep. 18, from early morning until late Monday night-Tuesday morning..

wind arrival

The current five-day weather forecast for our neighborhood calls for a 20% chance of rain Monday and Tuesday with winds of 10 and 14 MPH respectively; high temperature in the high 70’s both days.

These current forecasts do not indicate we will experience any severe weather, except for higher than normal winds.

Watch this website for further weather updates.

Weather update, Sunday, Sep 10, 9:00 AM EDST

Weather forecasts for the week of September 10 – 16 show we will not be affected seriously by Hurricane Irma.

We are forecast to experience 1-5 inches of rain with possible minor flooding in low-lying areas, beginning Monday night, Sep 11, ending late-Tuesday-early-Wednesday, Sep 12-13.  We may also experience winds of 10-15 MPH with gusts approaching 30 MPH.

These conditions are similar to those we experience during one of our typical nor’easters.

Although we are not in the path of hurricanes Irma or Jose, hurricane season does not end until November 30 — we need to keep our eyes on the weather.  We will post weather alerts here on the website as well as sending emails to all PBE property owners as conditions require.

Hurricane Irma Update: Thursday, Sep 7, 10:00 PM EDST

This forecast map from the National Hurricane Center indicates Irma will make landfall in south Florida — probably at/near Miami — then will move north-northwest, hitting:

  • Savannah, Georgia, Monday afternoon as a hurricane (winds 74-110 MPH)
  • Knoxville, Tennessee, Tuesday afternoon as a tropical storm (winds 39 – 73 MPH)

sep 7 track_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

If this track holds, our neighborhood will feel only moderate effects from Irma, if anything at all.  However, the prudent action to take is to be prepared for high winds and heavy rain:

  • Secure all outdoor items — furniture, boat accessories, lawn ornaments.
  • Be certain your boat is lashed down VERY securely, if you cannot bring it ashore.
  • Make certain all doors and windows are closed and locked.

This compilation of possible tracks from the Cyclocane website reinforces the National Hurricane Center track projections with most of the projected tracks moving inland.

irma spaghetti sep 7

The latest track for Hurricane Jose indicates the storm will veer out to sea and should not affect us.

sep 7 jose

While the tracks for Irma and Jose are good news for our neighborhood, watch this site for updated information on these and other storms.  Remember:  Hurricane season does not end until November 30.

 

 

 

Hurricane Irma Update: Wednesday, Sep 6, 7:00 AM EDST

The current track for Hurricane Irma, issued by the National Hurricane Center, shows the storm making landfall on southern Florida late Sunday night/early Monday morning.

Sep 6_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

If this track continues:

If this track continues, after making landfall on Florida, the storm will loose strength as it moves across land.  In this case, Irma will effect us on Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday — Sep 12-14 — with rain and high winds.  However, by the time Irma reaches our neighborhood, it will no longer be a hurricane or a tropical storm.

Other models show Irma moving up the East Coast:

Other computer models that analyze changes in Irma’s track caused by high- and low-pressure areas suggest the storm could miss Florida and come ashore along the southeastern Atlantic Coast.

irma models sep 6

Some of these computer models suggest Irma could affect us as a hurricane.

What to do:

Continue to watch the National Hurricane Center, local weather reports, and this website.

If you are in the neighborhood over the next few days, please secure your outside furniture, grills, boat, boat accessories — or anything else that is not tied down.  Move these items inside; tie them down; or, stash them under your deck.  Ensure your doors and windows are closed and locked.  Give your contact information to one of us who lives here year-round.

 

 

Hurricane Irma update: Monday, Sep 4, 5:00 PM EDST

This image is from the National Hurricane Center and shows their best estimate of Hurricane Irma’s track.  This six-day forecast can change dramatically depending on the actions of high- and low-pressure areas in the North Atlantic, over the continental US or over South and Central America.

204223_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

Watch this website for updates on Hurricane Irma.  Some predictions still show Irma turning sharply north toward the East Coast and possibly threatening Virginia.

 

Watching Hurricane Irma

We need to keep our eye on the weather toward the end of this week, beginning around Friday-Saturday, September 8-9.

Hurricane Irma currently is in the Atlantic Ocean and has strengthened to Category 3 — 110 MPH winds. While it is still a bit early for definitive tracking, the predicted tracks have Irma making landfall on the US early next week — Sep 10 – 14 — anywhere from Florida to Virginia. One track shows the storm entering the Chesapeake Bay. Other predictions show it veering out to sea and not making landfall.

This article describes the variables affecting Irma as well as showing the many different possible tracks.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-irma-us-forecast-challenge-1sep17

The article concludes: “All we can say right now is that the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast all need to monitor the progress of Irma.”

 

You can follow Irma at the National Hurricane Center website:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145723.shtml?cone#contents

Their tracking shows Irma hitting the Bahamas Friday at “major hurricane” level — at least Cat 3.

We likely will not know if the storm poses a threat to our neighborhood until late this week.  Watch this website for information.  Monitor local TV and radio stations for weather updates.

If you visit the neighborhood during the Labor Day weekend, or the week of Sep 4 – 9, please check your property

  • store all outdoor furniture, toys, boat accessories, fishing tackle, etc. inside

  • be certain all doors and windows are closed securely and locked

  • lash down your boat VERY SECURELY, or, if possible, remove the boat from the neighborhood

  • contact one of us year-round residents and give us your contact information in case we need to contact you about your property

  • watch the weather predictions for the neighborhood