As of 5:00 PM EDT, Friday, September 15, National Hurricane Center projections suggest our neighborhood may receive winds in the 10 – 20 MPH range from Hurricane Jose as the storm moves through the Atlantic paralleling the East Coast. While the storm is not forecast to make landfall, we are in the warning cone for winds, possibly accompanied by rain.
Here is Jose’s forecast track as of 5:00 PM EDT, Friday, Sep 15.
Here is a forecast of wind speeds. Note we are in the 10 – 20 MPH wind speed band.
This chart is an experimental depiction of wind arrival times, indicating we may experience winds throughout the day Monday, Sep. 18, from early morning until late Monday night-Tuesday morning..
The current five-day weather forecast for our neighborhood calls for a 20% chance of rain Monday and Tuesday with winds of 10 and 14 MPH respectively; high temperature in the high 70’s both days.
These current forecasts do not indicate we will experience any severe weather, except for higher than normal winds.
Weather forecasts for the week of September 10 – 16 show we will not be affected seriously by Hurricane Irma.
We are forecast to experience 1-5 inches of rain with possible minor flooding in low-lying areas, beginning Monday night, Sep 11, ending late-Tuesday-early-Wednesday, Sep 12-13. We may also experience winds of 10-15 MPH with gusts approaching 30 MPH.
These conditions are similar to those we experience during one of our typical nor’easters.
Although we are not in the path of hurricanes Irma or Jose, hurricane season does not end until November 30 — we need to keep our eyes on the weather. We will post weather alerts here on the website as well as sending emails to all PBE property owners as conditions require.
The current track for Hurricane Irma, issued by the National Hurricane Center, shows the storm making landfall on southern Florida late Sunday night/early Monday morning.
If this track continues:
If this track continues, after making landfall on Florida, the storm will loose strength as it moves across land. In this case, Irma will effect us on Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday — Sep 12-14 — with rain and high winds. However, by the time Irma reaches our neighborhood, it will no longer be a hurricane or a tropical storm.
Other models show Irma moving up the East Coast:
Other computer models that analyze changes in Irma’s track caused by high- and low-pressure areas suggest the storm could miss Florida and come ashore along the southeastern Atlantic Coast.
Some of these computer models suggest Irma could affect us as a hurricane.
If you are in the neighborhood over the next few days, please secure your outside furniture, grills, boat, boat accessories — or anything else that is not tied down. Move these items inside; tie them down; or, stash them under your deck. Ensure your doors and windows are closed and locked. Give your contact information to one of us who lives here year-round.
This image is from the National Hurricane Center and shows their best estimate of Hurricane Irma’s track. This six-day forecast can change dramatically depending on the actions of high- and low-pressure areas in the North Atlantic, over the continental US or over South and Central America.
Watch this website for updates on Hurricane Irma. Some predictions still show Irma turning sharply north toward the East Coast and possibly threatening Virginia.
We need to keep our eye on the weather toward the end of this week, beginning around Friday-Saturday, September 8-9.
Hurricane Irma currently is in the Atlantic Ocean and has strengthened to Category 3 — 110 MPH winds. While it is still a bit early for definitive tracking, the predicted tracks have Irma making landfall on the US early next week — Sep 10 – 14 — anywhere from Florida to Virginia. One track shows the storm entering the Chesapeake Bay. Other predictions show it veering out to sea and not making landfall.
This article describes the variables affecting Irma as well as showing the many different possible tracks.