As of 11:oo PM, Thursday, September 13, Hurricane Florence is making landfall on the NC coast. This is the latest track forecast from the National Hurricane Center. Notice the remnants of Florence will turn NE and slightly affect our area Monday and Tuesday, Sep 17-18.
We are forecast to receive 1 to 2 inches of rain over the next few days.
One of the four main water distribution lines serving our neighborhood broke over the weekend. The line involved serves all of Presley Drive and the lots west from the intersection of Potomac Drive and Presley Drive — lots 25 through 30, 31, 32, and 33. Water is turned off to all residences on Presley Drive as well as to the affected lots on Potomac Drive.
Frank Goyette and Joe Schlatter worked Thursday afternoon and located the break. We had a lot of difficulty locating a plumber; we now have a plumber who will be here first thing Thursday morning, Sep 13. Water service should be restored to the affected area by noon Thursday.
For everyone’s information:
Four distribution lines come from the pump house located on Presley Drive. Each line has a shutoff valve. With this arrangement, if one distribution line breaks, only that line must be shut off, leaving only a part of the neighborhood without water until a repair can be made.
We have two wells, each with its own pump. The pumps feed a 1,000-gallon tank. An air compressor maintains pressure on the water in the tank. When anyone uses water, pressure switches turn on the air compressor and one of the pumps. The controls alternate between pumps so we do not depend on a single well. Each well delivers well over 35 gallons per minute, more than enough for our heaviest use.
There is a propane-powered generator that operates the water system in case of power outage. Thus, when we do have an interruption in electrical power, each residence will have normal water pressure.
The memorial service for our friend and neighbor Walter “Tink” Seymour will be held:
Living Water Lutheran Church, 83 Bluff Point Rd, Kilmarnock
Saturday, September 22
As you travel toward Kilmarnock from Burgess or Wicomico Church, Bluff Point Road is the first road to the LEFT as you enter Kilmarnock — the church is on the left — turn left onto Bluff Point Rd then turn left into the parking lot.
Tink passed away Saturday, Sep 8, at his home, 139 Potomac Drive. We all remember Tink fondly as a good neighbor and a friend. He often was the first to introduce himself to new neighbors and was a friend to all.
Hurricane Florence update as of 9:00 PM, Tuesday, Sep 11.
Latest projections are fairly good news for us as it appears Florence may turn westward upon making landfall, which will move the worst of the storm well away from us. Still, we expect a lot of rain and fairly high winds beginning Thursday.
Here is the latest track for Hurricane Florence from the National Hurricane Center. This track shows the storm will veer slightly south and head almost due west after making landfall — which is good news for us.
This map of rainfall potential shows our neighborhood in the 4-6 inch rainfall band.
This map indicates we have only a 30% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds (39 – 73 MPH).
Finally, this is the current weather forecast for Heathsville VA for the period Wednesday, Sep 12, through Monday, Sep 17.
The columns are: Date; General forecast for the day; Hi/Lo temp; Chance of precipitation; Sustained wind speed and direction from which the wind is coming; Average humidity
All projected tracks for Hurricane Florence indicate the storm will make landfall on the SE US coast on Thursday; most likely landfall is on the North Carolina coast. Our neighborhood likely will experience high wind and heavy rain — this could change if Florence changes direction. Watch this website for updates.
Here is the latest track from the National Hurricane Center.
This map shows the probability of tropical storm winds — 39 to 73 MPH. We are in the30-40 percent probability of tropical storm winds.
The maps below represent US National Weather Service and European Weather Service projections of rainfall amounts. These are a bit difficult to read, however, our neighborhood is expected to receive 5 to 10 inches of rain for the period Thursday, Sep 13 through Tuesday, September 18. This could change if Florence changes direction.
Based on these projections, assuming Florence remains on her current track, we will experience high winds and heavy rain over the weekend, Thursday, Sep 13 through Sunday, Sep 16.
Hurricane Florence current track forecast indicates the storm will make landfall along the NC-SC state line Thursday as a major hurricane with winds above 110 MPH. The map below is copied from the National Hurricane Center and is current as of 5:00 PM EDST, Sunday, Sep 9.
Note the forecast indicates Florence will decrease to a tropical storm with winds 39 – 73 MPH after making landfall. Coastal Virginia likely will see high surf, high tides, winds that may gust to as much as 50 MPH, and heavy rain beginning Thursday, Sep 13 and continuing into the weekend, Sep 15-16.
There is always the possibility that Florence could shift slightly to the north, in which case the storm could hit coastal Virginia directly.
We will monitor Florence and provide updates at least once a day until the storm clears.
This map is a 7-day rainfall forecast from NOAA for the period Monday, Sep 10 through Monday, Sep 17. Our neighborhood is in the area forecast to possibly receive 5 – 10 inches of rain.
Rain from Florence could arrive in central Virginia as early as Thursday, Sep 13, and last into next weekend (Sep 15-16), but how much is the major question at this point.
If Florence stalls over eastern North Carolina or Virginia – which some computer models now suggest – flash flooding will become a serious threat, followed by river flooding.
A faster track could mean more of an inland wind threat, while a slower track would exacerbate the flooding potential. Either way, there may be more than one hazard to deal with.
The latest 7-day rainfall outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration generally shows 5 to 10 inches of rain across the Piedmont region of Virginia by next Sunday night, but higher amounts would occur in localized fashion.