Hurricane Florence current track forecast indicates the storm will make landfall along the NC-SC state line Thursday as a major hurricane with winds above 110 MPH. The map below is copied from the National Hurricane Center and is current as of 5:00 PM EDST, Sunday, Sep 9.
Note the forecast indicates Florence will decrease to a tropical storm with winds 39 – 73 MPH after making landfall. Coastal Virginia likely will see high surf, high tides, winds that may gust to as much as 50 MPH, and heavy rain beginning Thursday, Sep 13 and continuing into the weekend, Sep 15-16.
There is always the possibility that Florence could shift slightly to the north, in which case the storm could hit coastal Virginia directly.
We will monitor Florence and provide updates at least once a day until the storm clears.
This map is a 7-day rainfall forecast from NOAA for the period Monday, Sep 10 through Monday, Sep 17. Our neighborhood is in the area forecast to possibly receive 5 – 10 inches of rain.
Rain from Florence could arrive in central Virginia as early as Thursday, Sep 13, and last into next weekend (Sep 15-16), but how much is the major question at this point.
If Florence stalls over eastern North Carolina or Virginia – which some computer models now suggest – flash flooding will become a serious threat, followed by river flooding.
A faster track could mean more of an inland wind threat, while a slower track would exacerbate the flooding potential. Either way, there may be more than one hazard to deal with.
The latest 7-day rainfall outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration generally shows 5 to 10 inches of rain across the Piedmont region of Virginia by next Sunday night, but higher amounts would occur in localized fashion.