RIP our friend and neighbor “Tink” Seymour

We are sad to report the passing of our long-time friend and neighbor, Walter “Tink” Seymour.  Tink died Saturday morning, September 8, at his home.

He was a good friend and neighbor,  known for his patrols of the neighborhood, checking on everyone’s homes and well-being.

We will announce funeral details when they are available.

Hurricane Florence update: Likely landfall on US East Coast Sep 13-14

The odds of a major hurricane making landfall along the East Coast next week keep growing. Forecast models paint an increasingly grim picture, converging on a track that would have what is currently Tropical Storm Florence making a direct hit as a powerful hurricane somewhere along the Southeast coast.

The National Hurricane Center predicts a dangerous major hurricane near the Southeast coast by late in the week.

Potential U.S. landfall is still several days away — probably between Thursday and Friday, September 13-14— and Florence’s ultimate track and intensity are not yet set in stone, with still a small chance that it meanders just off the East Coast and then curls out to sea.

Here is the latest track from the National Hurricane Center.

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The notations on the map are:

  • H — Hurricane, winds 74 – 100 MPH
  • M — Major Hurricane, winds over 110 MPH

You should begin to make preparations for a major storm.  Even if Florence does not hit us directly, we likely will get high winds and heavy rain — wind speed, rain amount and storm duration will depend on where the storm makes landfall.

Please do the following:

  • Ensure all doors and windows are securely closed and locked.
  • Tie down or store all outside items — lawn furniture, grills (both charcoal and propane), boats, anything else normally in the lawn or on the deck should be put inside, under your deck, or tied down securely.
  • Ensure your boat is well-secured to the lift.  Or, better yet, take the boat out of the water and park boat on trailer.
  • If you have propane, check your tank level and top it up if it’s below 40%.
  • If you have a generator, check it — check oil, check fuel supply, make certain it starts.
  • If you will be in the neighborhood when the storm hits, you should stock up on perishables — milk, bread, other food — the local Food Lion likely will run low beginning a few days before the storm hits.
  • KEEP TRACK OF THE STORM:  Watch this website; check local TV and radio; check the National Hurricane Center website.

You do not need to stock water.  Our water system has a generator that will keep the pumps running in case of power outage.

We will watch the storm and update the website.

Meanwhile, here’s a satellite photo showing Florence plus two other tropical storms that likely will develop into hurricanes.

Hurricane Florence update: Saturday, Sep 8, 5:30 AM

Here is the latest track projection for Hurricane Florence by the National Hurricane Center.

We will monitor Florence and provide regular updates on this website.  If it appears that Florence will affect our neighborhood, we will provide information to property owners via email.

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By 2 AM Tuesday, Sep 11, Florence is projected to be a major hurricane with winds over 110 MPH.  This track indicates Florence could make landfall along the NC-SC coast late on Thursday, Sep 13, continuing into Saturday, Sep 15.

More reporting and forecasts for Florence.  These forecasts project:

  • Winds 145 MPH by 2:00 AM , Thursday, Sep 13
  • Landfall on the NC-SC coast.

This image shows “spaghetti models” for Florence as well as for a newly-formed tropical depression and a new tropical storm, both off the west coast of Africa, possibly headed for the US, the Caribbean, or the Gulf of Mexico.  Note, too, some possible tracks for Florence show the hurricane either (1) making landfall along the NC-VA coast; (2) along the VA coast; or (3) veering to the North or Northeast, missing the US East Coast.

Tropical Storm Florence Spaghetti Model


This satellite photo from the National Hurricane Center shows:

  • Florence
  • A minor tropical depression off the US East Coast (the yellow X)
  • Tropical Depression 9, and,
  • Tropical Storm Helene


Hurricane Florence may — and we stress “may” — threaten US East Coast — we will monitor

As of Wednesday evening, September 5, Hurricane Florence is located in the Atlantic and likely will make landfall on Bermuda.  Some projections show Florence making landfall in our area late next week (Sep 10 – 14 or later).  Here are maps and satellite photos.

This satellite photo shows Florence as of 7:42 PM EDST,  September 5.  Note also another tropical depression has formed off the coast of Africa with 70% chance of developing into a tropical storm within 48 hours.

This graphic from the National Hurricane Center projects that Florence will grow into a major hurricane by Thursday, September 6, and will be in the vicinity of Bermuda by Monday afternoon, September 10.  Major hurricanes are defined as those with sustained winds over 110 MPH.

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This graphic from plots several possible tracks for Florence.     Note that several of these possible tracks indicate Florence could make landfall on the US East Coast somewhere between north Florida/south Georgia and the Chesapeake Bay.  Other tracks project Florence avoiding the East Coast and turning sharply northeast into the North Atlantic.


We will monitor Hurricane Florence and will post updated information over the next few days.
Here is a link to the National Hurricane Center where you can monitor Florence as well as other tropical storms or hurricanes.

UPDATE:  Thursday, Sep 6, 11:00 PM

Hurricane Florence has weakened somewhat, however, the storm is expected to strengthen and regain strength over the weekend.  The point at which Florence will make landfall on the US East Coast is still not clear — in fact, it’s not clear if Florence will hit the East Coast. Florence’s path will become more clear in the next few days.  Meanwhile —

cone graphic

This graphic from the National Hurricane Center shows Florence weakening to tropical storm status Thursday and Friday, then strengthening to hurricane force, becoming a major hurricane by Tuesday night, Sep 11.

Here are spaghetti models for Florence’s future track.

Florence Spaghetti Models

This spaghetti model accompanies a Newsweek article on Florence.

We will monitor Hurricane Florence and will post updated information over the next few days.
Here is a link to the National Hurricane Center where you can monitor Florence as well as other tropical storms or hurricanes.

Potomac Bay Estates neighborhood picnic: Labor Day weekend

All Potomac Bay Estates property owners are invited!!

  •  Annual PBE Labor Day Picnic
  • 3:00-6:00 p.m.
  • Saturday, September 1, 2018
  • At the common area picnic area, west end of Potomac Drive

Bring the family !! Children and dogs are welcome.

Rain date:  Sunday, Sep. 2, same time, same place.

The Property Owners’ Association will provide the meats – buns – condiments — bottled water and soft drinks.

Please bring:

  • a side dish and/or dessert to share
  • beach chairs, beach games
  • BYOB wine, beer

Family and friends are invited.

There are no jellyfish in the water this year, so, bring swimsuits, kayaks, and other water gear.

PLEASE RSVP — we need a headcount to buy food — reply to our email address:


We had a small but really fun neighborhood picnic on Saturday, September 1, at the picnic area.

Five couples attended:  Michelini, Ross, Houser, Williams and Schlatter.

PBE POA President Dave Williams presented Sue and Ray Michelini with an original painting by our own late Carol Seymour in recognition of their service to the POA.  Ray served as POA President and Board member.  He also guided the beach restoration/bulkhead protection project that resulted in our new breakwaters and observation deck.

Local events and activities you may enjoy

Here are suggestions from some of our neighbors of places and events you may enjoy.

KC’s Crabs and Cues Shag night on Thursdays in Kilmarnock

Greg Howell – the Shaggin’ DJ spins Shag and Line Dance tunes beginning at 6:30 and continuing until 9:00 each Thursday.

Free dance lessons are available as follows:

Shag Beginners – 6:00 – see Earl Barton or Ray Paul to request a lesson.

Shag Beyond Beginners – 7:00

Line Dancing – 8:00 – Joy Hendershot will be teaching

KC’s Crabs and Cues is located at 10468 Jesse DuPont Memorial Hwy — that’s Hwy 200 — from our area, go to Burgess, turn right at the light onto Hwy 200/Jesse DuPont Memorial Hwy; continue 10.4 miles to KC’s on the right.


Friday Night – Bob Wilson is playing at Good Luck Cellars  from 5:30 – 7:30.  Byrds Seafood truck has begun to sell food every Friday night also.

Good Luck Cellars is located at 1024 Goodluck Road, Kilmarnock.  from our area, go to Burgess, turn right at the light onto Hwy 200/Jesse DuPont Memorial Hwy; continue 10 miles to Goodluck Road on the right; turn onto Goodluck Road, go 1.5 miles to Good Luck Cellars vineyard on the left.

We enjoy the people, food and drink as often as we can and hope folks that live and visit the PBE will attend when they can.  It’s a good time!

CAUTION: Osprey nesting . . . please do not disturb!!!

Along the Potomac River shore west of our picnic area a pair of osprey are raising two chicks.  If you are in the water near this area, PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM THE OSPREY — when people approach too closely, the adults fly away, leaving the chicks unattended.  Here are some photos to show everyone the osprey family.

Looking west from our picnic area along the Potomac River shore you see the boat lift for Lot 52.  On the other side of the boat lift is a huge osprey nest on the rocks that protect the Lot 52 shoreline.

This is a photo of the osprey nest taken from the driveway of Lot 52.  The picnic area, Lot 52 boat lift and the gate across the driveway are to your right.  When this photo was made, one adult osprey was on the nest with the two chicks.

Here’s a close-up shot of the adult osprey and the chicks — the chicks are the brown objects to the right of the adult.


Another close-up of the adult and chicks.


On the Fourth, the folks on Lot 52 observed people on jet skis zooming close in to the nest, causing the adults to fly away, thereby leaving the chicks unattended.  THIS CAN BE FATAL TO THE CHICKS.  If the adults are driven away from the nest, the chicks will be exposed to the sun, and, the adults may not return as needed to feed the chicks.

PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM THE OSPREY NEST.  If you are jet-skiing in this area, please stay at least 100 yards out in the Potomac River.  If you are kayaking, please stay 75-100 yards out in the Potomac.

We need to give these birds a lot of space for the rest of the summer.  They will be gone in late September when they migrate.


At the same time the photos of the osprey were made, a Great Blue Heron was quietly hunting in Presley Creek.

We in Potomac Bay Estates are fortunate to have so much wildlife to observe.  In addition to the osprey and Bald Eagles, we have a lot of waterfowl, both year-round residents and migratory, as well as a huge assortment of songbirds.  Our neighborhood mammals include whitetail deer, fox, coyote, opossum, racoon, groundhogs, and — reportedly — at least one black bear.  Reptiles include the occasional black snake, lots of Eastern box turtles, and an occasional snapping turtle.  Please respect the wildlife !  Thanks !