WINTER STORM WARNING — Wednesday through Friday, Jan 3-5, 2018 — UPDATE

A SEVERE winter storm is on the way that will affect us beginning Wednesday night and continuing through Thursday, possibly into Friday.

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UPDATE:

As of 11:00 PM, Wednesday, Jan 3, snow started about 45 minutes ago; the ground is now covered.

UPDATE:

As of 2:30 PM, Wednesday, Jan 3, the forecasts for Wednesday night and Thursday are:

Wednesday night.  Snow likely. Low 23F. Winds N at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 100%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.  Snow anticipated to start between 9 and 10 PM.

Thursday daytime.  Windy. Snow during the morning will give way to partly cloudy conditions during the afternoon. High 29F. Winds NW at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Snow accumulations less than one inch. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph.

Forecast low temperatures for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday nights are 9, 7, and  6 degrees, with winds 10 – 15 MPH.

UPDATE:

As of 7:00 AM, Wednesday, Jan 3, our weather forecast for Wednesday evening is:

Snow likely. Low 24F. Winds N at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 90%. Snow accumulating 3 to 5 inches.

The forecast for Thursday, Jan 4:  Snow showers early. Peeks of sunshine later. High 29F. Winds NW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Snow accumulations less than one inch. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph.

Forecast low temperatures for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday nights are 9, 7, and  6 degrees, with winds 10 – 15 MPH.

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This storm is being caused by the conjunction of a blast of very cold air coming from the northwest with a large area of warm, moist air moving up the coast.

Predictions for our neighborhood are for 1 to 3 inches of snow starting Wednesday night, ending Thursday noon, accompanied by high winds and very cold temperatures.

From Norfolk to the Maryland and Delaware beaches, including much of the southern half of the Delmarva Peninsula, 3 to 6 inches of heavy snow are predicted from Wednesday evening to Thursday afternoon.

Farther inland in the Mid-Atlantic, near Interstate 95, the storm’s exact track will be highly consequential. Current computer models suggest most, if not all, snowfall will occur east of Washington and Baltimore on Wednesday night into early Thursday. But small shifts to the west could bring some snow to these cities.

Because of the low pressure area off the coast and the high pressure area moving in from the NW, the National Weather Service is warning of possibly very high, damaging winds.  Our wind gusts are likely to exceed 30 MPH.

This article provides a detailed discussion and description of the coming storm.

UPDATE:

The latest forecast for Wednesday night, Jan 3, from The Weather Channel:

Cloudy with snow. Low 24F. Winds N at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 80%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

Forecast for Thursday, Jan 4 — note the high winds:

Windy with snow showers before noon. Partly cloudy later. High 29F. Winds NW at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of snow 50%. Snow accumulations less than one inch. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph.

Winter Storm Watch issued for our area.

 

Issuing Office: Wakefield

Source: National.Weather.Service

9:44pm EST, Tue Jan 2

 

… WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON… * WHAT… HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. PLAN ON DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. * WHERE… PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MARYLAND AND EASTERN VIRGINIA. * WHEN… FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS… SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Ice on the Potomac River for the new year!!!

Following several days of nighttime temperatures in the ‘teens and daytime temps below freezing, ice has formed along the Potomac River shoreline at our neighborhood as well as several miles up and down the river.

Here are some photos made around noon, Monday, January 1, 2018.

Looking from the picnic area across the breakwaters. The “waves” are not waves . . . that’s water frozen into the shape of waves. The dark area in the distance is open water; ice is the white/grey area.
There’s a beach under this ice somewhere!!! The “waves” are not water . . . that’s ice frozen into the form of waves.
Looking east toward the Chesapeake Bay, along the Potomac shore. As with the other photos, the “waves” breaking on the beach are not waves . . . that’s water frozen into the shape of waves

Yes, it’s C O L D !! Take winter precautions.

Winter has arrived.  Low temperature tonight (Dec 27, 2017) is forecast to be in the ‘teens with daily highs in the 30’s, maybe into the 40’s.  These low temperatures will continue well into the new year.

These low temperatures can cause burst pipes in houses that are not occupied.  Here are some tips for full-time and part-time residents:

  • If the house is to be empty for a while, especially for part-time residents, set your thermostat on at least 55 degrees.  That way, the house will be kept warm enough to prevent pipes from freezing without adding too much to your electrical bill.
  • If you use propane heat, check your propane tank and fill it if necessary.
  • Check your crawl space door — make certain it is secure.  A couple of years ago, a crawl space door was blown open by high winds, causing sub-freezing temperatures to develop in the crawl space which cause pipes under the house to freeze and burst.
  • Make certain your doors and windows are closed securely — high winds can open doors.
  • In your kitchen, especially if you are a part-time resident, leave cabinet doors under the sink open.  In many cases, the pipes that serve your kitchen sink are against an outside wall and can freeze.  By leaving the cabinet doors open, you allow warm air from the house to circulate into the area under the sink, thereby preventing frozen pipes.

We check the gauges in the well house every couple of days to see how much water is being used.  If we see a spike in water usage without a corresponding increase in the number of people in the neighborhood, that can indicate a burst pipe somewhere.  If this happens, we will investigate.  If we find a burst pipe, we will turn off the water to that house (if possible); we will call a plumber; and, we will call the homeowner.

Tundra swans are back!!

December 24, 2017 — Several Northern birds migrate to our area where they remain over the winter.  Regular winter migratory visitors to our neighborhood include Tundra Swans (Cygnus columbianus) and Buffleheads (Bucephala albeola).

A group of eight Tundra Swans was spotted on Presley Creek around noon, Sunday, Dec. 24.  In previous years we have seen as many as 30-plus Tundras.

Here’s a photo of the group seen Dec 24.  Tundra Swans feed on underwater vegetation — notice several of these swans have their heads under water, feeding.

 

PBE POA President’s Christmas Letter

Merry Christmas to all our Members and Happy Holidays

As the 2017 holidays approach, I wanted to express my appreciation to all our members, board directors, project officers, and our extended family of volunteers for the on-going support you provided during a busy and successful 2017.

Our major accomplishment was the long-awaited completion of the PBE POA Beach Stabilization Project. Many hours and ever more dollars have been invested in securing our common area beach, bulkhead, and fishing pier for the long-term benefit for our members and their guests, in the coming years. Years of planning and many hours of detailed discussion and legal documentation have finally come to fruition – Thank You Ray & Volunteers!

Other notable projects; I will call-out three: first the beautiful renovated signage at our community entry and beach areas – Thanks Buddy – Marie and Don – Katherine. Second our secure and technically advanced website; https://pbepoa.com/ . Thank you Joe Schlatter for monthly postings and maintenance and Martha Hulse for your technical acumen and consultation for this secure implementation.

Our third success is behind the scenes with Tink Seymour’s on-going Community Watch and CINC grass cutting over-watch – Thanks Tink.

I will stop here to say thanks to each member who took pride in your plantings and lawns this past year. Thanks for investing your time to make our community a better place to live and to visit.

As we welcome 2018 – I ask that we keep our optimistic outlook for the future and rededicate ourselves to our personal health, our community well-being, and happiness. Let’s continue to keep smiling, give thanks for our many blessings, and continue to offer our neighbors a wave, a thank you, and a helping hand.

God Bless you and yours in 2018. May you enjoy good health.

Dave Williams, President PBE – Property Owners Association

Winter storm: As of Sunday morning

As of Sunday morning, December 10, 7:00 AM:  We missed the worst of the predicted winter storm.

From Friday night, Dec 8, until after midnight, Dec 9-10, our neighborhood experienced cold rain mixed with snow; snow; winds up to 5 MPH; and, temperatures around and sometimes below freezing.  We had almost no accumulation of snow in the neighborhood, with snow dusting the ground in most places.

However, most of Northumberland County experienced 2 – 3 inches of snow except on the roads — roads remained clear, although roads were wet.

As of Sunday morning, Dec 10, skies are clearing.  Here’s a link to the weather forecast for the next few days.