Author: pbepoa

Tropical Depression 16 has strengthened into a tropical storm named Ophelia.

THIS IS A MAJOR TROPICAL STORM AND CAN CAUSE SERIOUS DAMAGE, FLOODING, AND POWER OUTAGES.

These two maps from the National Hurricane Center indicate we will experience 2 – 6 inches of rain and tropical storm force winds up to 60 MPH with winds arriving as early as 2:00 AM Saturday.

 

 

Tropical Storm Warning

Ophelia Local Watch/Warning Statement/Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
National Weather Service Wakefield, VA  AL162023
221 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

VAZ077-230230-
/O.CON.KAKQ.SS.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KAKQ.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Northumberland-
221 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Heathsville

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 55 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Saturday
          morning until Saturday evening

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
      to 57 mph
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
          force.
        - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be
          completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind
          damage.
        - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
          uprooted, especially if soils are saturated. Some roadway
          signs will sustain damage.
        - A few roads will be impassable from debris. Hazardous
          driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
        - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet
          above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
        - Window of concern: through early Sunday morning

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
      surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground
        - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Shelter against life-threatening storm surge of
          greater than 3 feet above ground.
        - PREPARE: Flood preparations and ordered evacuations should
          be complete. Evacuees should be in shelters well away from
          storm surge flooding.
        - ACT: Remain sheltered in a safe location. Do not venture
          outside.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding
        - Potential impacts from the main surge event are unfolding.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 3-6 inches, with locally higher
          amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
      moderate flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
          are possible.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Flooding from heavy rainfall may prompt evacuations and
          rescues
        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen, with
          swift currents, and overspill their banks. Small streams,
          creeks, and ditches overflow.
        - Flood waters can enter some structures and/or weaken
          foundations. Some areas may experience areas of rapid
          inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
          drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
          moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
          Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
          closures are expected.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
      tornadoes
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
          few tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
          tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
          hazardous weather arrives.
        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
          quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - A few tornadoes are expected. As a result, execution of
          emergency plans could be hindered in affected areas.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Roofs peeled off some buildings. A few chimneys toppled and
          mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned. Large
          tree tops and branches snapped off, with some trees knocked
          over. A few vehicles blown off roads.

The National Weather Service Office in Wakefield VA and the National Hurricane Center have issued a tropical storm warning for our area for the period Friday through Saturday, possibly into Sunday morning.

THIS IS A LONG MESSAGE.  READ IT ALL.

Please note that forecast and warnings can change from hour to hour as the storm track changes, or, remains the same.  Watch local TV, listen to local radio, monitor broadcasts if you have a weather radio.

Tropical Storm Warning

Sixteen Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Wakefield, VA  AL162023
1128 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

VAZ077-212330-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.SS.A.1016.230921T1528Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAKQ.TR.W.1016.230921T1528Z-000000T0000Z/
Northumberland-
1128 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Storm Surge Watch means life-threatening inundation, from rising
water moving inland from the coastline, is possible somewhere within
this area within the next 48 hours

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Heathsville

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
      to 57 mph
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
          force.
        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
          underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
          becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
          uprooted, especially if soils are saturated. Some roadway
          signs will sustain damage.
        - A few roads will be impassable from debris. Hazardous
          driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
        - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet
          above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
        - Window of concern: Friday evening until Sunday morning

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
      surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground
        - PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of
          greater than 3 feet above ground.
        - PREPARE: Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should
          soon be brought to completion before conditions become
          unsafe.
        - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
          your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or
          needlessly risk lives.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Severe storm surge flooding will likely cause inundation of
          numerous roads and buildings, resulting in a threat to life
          and property. Flooding will likely extend inland from the
          waterfront and shoreline flooding homes, businesses and
          isolating some neighborhoods. Large breaking waves will
          result in additional damage near the shoreline.
        - Numerous roads flooded or washed out.
        - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching some dunes.
        - Severe damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers is
          expected. Small craft broken away from moorings, especially
          in unprotected marinas and docks.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher
          amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
      moderate flooding rain
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
          are possible.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Flooding from heavy rainfall may prompt evacuations and
          rescues
        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen, with
          swift currents, and overspill their banks. Small streams,
          creeks, and ditches overflow.
        - Flood waters can enter some structures and/or weaken
          foundations. Some areas may experience areas of rapid
          inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
          drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
          moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
          Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
          closures are expected.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
        - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
          with gusty winds may still occur.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
          against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
          tornado situation.
        - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - http://ready.gov/hurricanes
    - www.readyvirginia.gov
    - weather.gov/akq

Here are Hurricane Center forecast maps.

STORM TRACK, ARRIVAL TIMES

---

WIND SPEED PROBABLITIES.  Note we are in the 20 – 30 MPH band.

---

RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  We are in the 2 -4 inches of rain band.

 

 

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a low pressure system near the East Coast that could become Tropical Storm or Hurricane Ophelia this weekend. Even if it does not become a named storm, flooding rain, coastal flooding, beach erosion, and high winds will be likely from South Carolina to New York Friday through Sunday.

On this map, the yellow area marks the location of the low pressure area in question and the area now being influenced by rain and winds in the low.  Wind circulation around a low pressure area is counterclockwise, so, winds in this low area already are influencing coastal areas in GA, SC, and NC. The red area just off the coast of Africa is a low pressure area that is expected to grow into a tropical storm and likely a hurricane in the next seven days.

The rainfall and wind speed projections for the next seven days are shown here.

 

Minutes for the Sep 13 PBE POA Board of Directors meeting are posted at this link.  

The National Weather Service office in Wakefield VA has issued a hazardous weather warning for possible heavy rains and high winds Friday and Saturday.  Watch this website and local weather forecasts for developments.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
516 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023

MDZ021>024-NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ077-078-084>086-089-090-092-093-
095>097-523>525-200930-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Northampton-Hertford-
Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-
Northumberland-Lancaster-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Surry-
James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-
Chesapeake-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
516 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A strong low pressure system may bring periods of heavy rain and
strong gusty winds from late Friday into the weekend.

The minutes for the July 3, 2023, PBE POA Board of Directors’ meeting have been posted on the MINUTES page of this website.

The June 3, 2023, annual meeting was followed by a Board of Directors’ meeting.  Minutes from these two meetings are now posted on the MINUTES page.

The Chesapeake Bay Protection Act and supporting state legislation requires that those of us living in the Chesapeake Bay watershed who have traditional septic systems must pump out their septic systems every five years or when the property is sold.  Everyone in our neighborhood has a traditional septic system and is subject to this requirement.

When a septic system is pumped out, the contractor who does the pump-out notifies the Northumberland County government who records the date then, five years later, sends notices reminding residents that a pump-out is due.  At our annual meeting on June 3 one resident remarked that he thought he was due for a pump-out but had not received a notification from the County.

The Northumberland County Office of Building and Zoning was responsible for notifying residents when pump-out is due.  However, program administration has shifted to the Northumberland County Health Department, and they are just getting up to speed and are a bit late getting out notices to people who need to have their tanks pumped.  Many of our neighbors had their tanks pumped in 2017 and are due. However, when one of our neighbors asked the Health Department, he was advised to sit tight until the Health Department sends out notices.  Of course, if someone wants to pump their tank, go ahead and have it pumped after which the contractor will report to the Health Department, and the new pump-out date should be entered in their database.

Two important new items have been added to the PBE POA website.

UPDATED RULES AND RESPONSIBILITIES FOR PROPERTY OWNERS.  At the May 23, 2023, meeting, the Board of Directors modified Paragraph 5 of the Rules and Responsibilities pertaining to vacant lots.  Here is a link to the page with the Rules and Responsibilities.

MINUTES, MAY 23 BOARD OF DIRECTORS MEETING.  Minutes can be found on this page.

We are saddened to report the passing of our friend and neighbor Richard Ross.  Richard told us earlier this year that he had been diagnosed with kidney cancer and was undergoing treatment. Richard died at his daughter’s home on April 18, 2023.  His obituary is at this link. 

After a career with Verizon, Richard formed a small business in addition to doing consulting work with communications companies.  He was an avid hunter, fisherman, and outdoorsman.

Martha passed away almost a year ago, June 18, 2022.    Martha was a lifelong educator and librarian with a deep love of books and reading, which she shared with others.

Richard and Martha’s weekend and vacation home was at 110 Presley Drive.

Richard has requested that in lieu of flowers, donations be made to the “Prevent Cancer Foundation” or “The Martha Scott Ross Literacy Fund” at www.cfrrr.org.