Tropical Storm Elsa: Status as of 7:00 AM, Thursday, July 8

Wind and rain from Tropical Storm Elsa are expected to arrive late this afternoon (Thursday) and remain through Thursday night into Friday morning.

This link is to the Accuweather forecast for our area.  Information at this link includes:  Current location of the storm; predicted rainfall amounts; predicted wind speeds; arrival time of winds.

The National Weather Service in Wakefield VA has updated their warnings, projecting that wind and rain from Tropical Storm Elsa will arrive in our area around 4:00 PM Thursday and exit around 5:00 AM Friday.

Because of the high winds, we recommend:

  • Secure all outdoor items — lawn/deck furniture; grill; bicycles; etc.  Either tie down, move inside, or otherwise secure these items so they will not be blown around.
  • Be prepared for power outage(s) lasting several hours.
  • Make certain your boat is securely tied down to lift or at marina.
  • Watch/listen to local TV and radio for weather alerts.
  • Be careful of high water on area rods, especially on Newman’s Neck Road between our neighborhood and Hwy 360.



Tropical Storm Elsa: Revised projections — 11:00 PM, Wednesday, July 7

This is the latest map of the track of Tropical Storm Elsa from the National Hurricane Center.  Wednesday, July 7, 11:00 PM

cone graphic

Note the center of the storm will pass over our area around 8:00 PM, Thursday, July 8; Elsa is rated a Tropical Storm — winds over 39 MPH.

Rain is expected to start in our area around 10:00 AM Thursday, July 8, becoming heavier until departing our area around 5:00 AM, Friday, July 9

Here is the latest information from the National Weather Service, Wakefield, VA — as of 11:30 PM, Wednesday, July 7.
Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 32
National Weather Service Wakefield VA  AL052021
1130 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021




    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Accomack, Bertie, Camden, Chesapeake, Chowan,
      Dorchester, Eastern Currituck, Gates, Gloucester,
      Hampton/Poquoson, Hertford, Inland Worcester, Lancaster,
      Maryland Beaches, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News,
      Norfolk/Portsmouth, Northampton, Northumberland, Pasquotank,
      Perquimans, Somerset, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Western
      Currituck, Westmoreland, Wicomico, and York

    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Accomack, Bertie,
      Camden, Chesapeake, Chowan, Dorchester, Eastern Currituck,
      Gates, Gloucester, Hampton/Poquoson, Hertford, Inland
      Worcester, Lancaster, Maryland Beaches, Mathews, Middlesex,
      Newport News, Norfolk/Portsmouth, Northampton, Northumberland,
      Pasquotank, Perquimans, Somerset, Suffolk, Virginia Beach,
      Western Currituck, Westmoreland, Wicomico, and York

    - About 590 miles southwest of Ocean City MD or about 480 miles
      southwest of Norfolk VA
    - 32.1N 82.3W
    - Storm Intensity 45 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 25 degrees at 16 mph


Tropical Storm Elsa continues to track across Georgia late this
evening and will then track northeast into the Carolinas later
tonight into Thursday morning. Elsa is then forecast to move across
northern North Carolina and eastern Virginia Thursday evening into
Thursday night, before moving northeast of the Delmarva coast Friday

Heavy rain bands and embedded thunderstorms are expected to
overspread the region Thursday and continue into Thursday night. 1
to 3 inches of rainfall is forecast across much of central and
eastern Virginia, in addition to the Lower Eastern Shore. Locally
higher amounts up to 5 inches are possible in these locations. Heavy
rainfall will result in a threat of localized flash flooding. A
Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the above mentioned areas.

Tropical storm force wind gusts are expected to develop along/near
coastal portions of northeast North Carolina, eastern Virginia, and
southeast Maryland Thursday evening into Thursday night. This could
lead to some downed trees and scattered power outages. There is the
potential for minor tidal flooding in areas along the north side of
the Albemarle and Currituck Sound (including Back Bay in Virginia
Beach) from late Thursday into Thursday night. In addition, minor
tidal flooding is possible on the bay side of the Lower Maryland
Eastern Shore and in portions of the Virginia Northern Neck adjacent
to the tidal Potomac.

Additionally, a few tornadoes will be possible Thursday into
Thursday night across northeast North Carolina, southeast/eastern
Virginia, and southeast Maryland, which could lead to locally
enhanced damage.

Dangerous marine conditions are expected to develop by Thursday
evening with strong winds and seas building to 6 to 9 feet.

Tropical Storm Elsa to affect our area from early Thursday morning to early Friday morning.

The National Weather Service in Wakefield VA has issued a storm warning for our area.

Go to this link for the current warning.

This link is the NWS flash flood watch.

NWS tropical storm watch.

We recommend you take the following precautions:

  • Tie down or otherwise secure all outdoor items — deck or lawn furniture; grills; bicycles; anything else that can move — tropical storm force winds can turn even large objects into missiles.
  • If your boat is on a lift, be certain it is secured.  If your boat is in a marina, check to ensure it is secure.
  • Be prepared for a power outage that may last several hours.

The National Hurricane Center has released the following projection maps.

Anticipated arrival time of tropical storm force winds

time of arrival graphic

Rainfall Potential — we are in the 2-4 inch area

[Image of WPC QPF U.S. rainfall potential]

Tropical Storm force winds probability — we are in the 10-20 MPH area

[Image of probabilities of 34-kt winds]

Important development for our area is in the making

Last week, Virginia Senators Mark Warner and Tom Kaine, along with Representative Rob Wittman introduced legislation to designate Virginia’s Northern Neck (which includes Northumberland County) as a National Heritage Area (NHA).  This designation, if approved, would deliver federal dollars, encourage public-private partnerships, and assign a specific entity – the Northern Neck Tourism Commission – to help protect the Northern Neck’s natural, cultural, scenic, and recreational resources.

Under this proposed legislation, the NHA designation would apply to the land between the Potomac River and Rappahannock River, spanning King George, Lancaster, Northumberland, Richmond, and Westmoreland counties.

Senator Warner stated: “As many Virginians already know, the Northern Neck is reflective of the Commonwealth’s unique history, with deep connections to eight Algonquian tribes and a number of American statesmen, including James Madison, James Monroe, and George Washington.  I’m proud to introduce this legislation to help protect the rich history and unique geography of the Northern Neck and leverage federal dollars to spur long-lasting economic opportunity in the region.”

Senator Kaine added: “Virginia’s Northern Neck is a source of pride, history, and economic development for the Commonwealth.   The beauty and cultural significance of the region attract tourism, strengthening Virginia’s economy and supporting jobs. I’m proud to introduce this piece of legislation to highlight the Northern Neck’s natural beauty and cultural assets, which will bring visitors and economic development.”

Representative Wittman stated: “The Northern Neck’s lands and waters showcase a natural beauty unlike any other. As a longtime resident of the Northern Neck, I know our heritage is unique and worthy of preserving.  With a history profoundly intertwined with that of the entire nation, it’s only right for us to recognize the Northern Neck as a National Heritage Area. I’m proud to join Senators Warner and Kaine in introducing this bipartisan legislation.” 

The National Park Service – which awards the National Heritage Area designation – conducted an NHA Feasibility Study which concluded that the Northern Neck’s themes, local traditions, and natural and historic resources retain “sufficient integrity and opportunities for public engagement” to be eligible for an NHA designation.

Under this proposed legislation, and as approved by the NPS study, the heritage area would be managed by the Northern Neck Tourism Commission, which would serve as the NHA’s local coordinating entity.

If this legislation passes, it would make federal funding available to the region and empower the Northern Neck Tourism Commission to carry out an area management plan, that would include:

  • Protecting and restoring relevant historic sites and building;
  • Carrying out programs and projects that recognize, protect, and enhance important resources;
  • Developing recreational and educational opportunities in the area;
  • Establishing and maintaining interpretive exhibits and programs;
  • Promoting a wide range of partnerships among the federal government, state, tribal and local governments, organizations, and individuals;
  • Increasing public awareness and appreciation for natural, historical, scenic, and cultural resources in the area; and
  • Ensuring that clear, consistent, and appropriate signs identifying points of public access and sires of interest are posted throughout the area

If our region is designated as a National Heritage Area, we can expect to see an increase in tourism and national interest in our area because of the region’s unique part in America’s early history as well as our natural beauty.

The legislation introduced by Warner, Kaine and Wittman has not yet been assigned a bill number — here is a link to the legislation as introduced and a link to Senator Warner’s announcement of the bipartisan legislation.  Here is a brief description by the National Park Service of a National Heritage Area

IF YOU OWN PROPERTY IN OUR NEIGHBORHOOD AND LIVE IN ANOTHER STATE OR ANOTHER VIRGINIA CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, please read the bill and if you agree that our region should be designated a National Heritage Area,  contact your US Senator and Representative and ask them to support this legislation.


SAVE THE DATE: Annual Meeting


The Potomac Bay Estates Property Owners’ Association annual meeting will be:
— Saturday, September 11, 2021
— Eat at 12:00 noon
— Meeting at 1:00 PM
— In the picnic area at the west end of Potomac Drive
— Inclement weather location: Williams’ home, 4142 Newman’s Neck Road

The Association will furnish hot dogs, hamburgers, buns, condiments, soft drinks, water. Please bring a side dish and a dessert to share. Wine and beer are BYOB.

At this meeting property owners will vote on revisions to our By-Laws, Restrictive Covenants, and other documents. Watch your email for details.

PBE POA Board of Directors Meeting

The Potomac Bay Estates Property Owners’ Association Board of Directors will meet:

  • Friday, May 28
  • 1:00 PM
  • 4142 Newman’s Neck Road (Williams residence)

Board meetings are open to all property owners.  Please let us know by email to if you will attend.

A copy of the agenda is here:  _v.01_0528_2021 Agenda PBE BOD_0520_

Minutes of the April 16, 2021 Board of Directors meeting are on the MINUTES page of this website.

Virginia Department of Wildlife Resources article: Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease

The Virginia Department of Wildlife Resources (DWR) has issued a warning about the possibility of wild rabbits in Virginia being infected with Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease (RHD), a fatal disease that can affect both wild and domestic rabbits.

Here is a link to the DWR article about RHD — this is a PDF that can be downloaded or printed.

Click to access RBDV2.pdf

While this sounds alarming, DWR points out that no cases of RHD have been confirmed in Virginia — from the DWR article:

As of June 2020, all North American detections in wild rabbits have
been confined to the southwestern U.S. and Mexico. It has also been diagnosed in domestic rabbits in various states, including Ohio (2018),
Washington (2019), and New York (2020).

Note the DWR article states:

  • RHD poses no health threat to humans.
  • The affected animals are wild and domestic rabbits.

While no cases of RHD have been reported in Virginia, we are posting this information because of the presence of wild rabbits (lots of them) in our area.

PBE POA Board of Directors’ Meeting

The PBE POA Board of Directors will meet:

  • Friday, April 16, 2021
  • 1:00 PM
  • 4142 Newman’s Neck Road (Williams’ residence)

The meeting will be both in-person (masks required; distancing maintained) and by ZOOM — ZOOM details to follow.

The priority items for this meeting are:

  • Approve FY2021-2022 budget
  • Plan date for annual POA meeting, probably Labor Day weekend

Meeting agenda can be found here (Microsoft Word format):  _v.01_0406_2021 Agenda PBE BOD_0416_

PBE POA Board meetings are open to members.  Please respond by email to if you wish to attend.  Specify if you plan to attend in person, or, if you need the ZOOM information.  We will post ZOOM access information to this website.