Wind, rain forecast for Thursday-Friday night, Sep 17-18

The remnants of Hurricane Sally are forecast to pass south of our neighborhood beginning late afternoon, Thursday, Sep 17 through the night, ending morning, Friday, Sep 18.

  • Rain is forecast to start around 6:00 PM Thursday and end by 8:00 AM Friday.
  • Heaviest rain is forecast be between 9:00 PM and 5:00 AM.
    • We are forecast to receive 2-3 inches of rain.
    • No flood warnings have been issued, however, be prepared for water to collect on roads, especially roads in low-lying areas.
  • Winds overnight are forecast to be steady at 5-7 MPH with gusts to 10-15 MPH.

Sheriff’s office issues alert

The Northumberland County Sheriff’s Office is investigating suspicious activity in the Sunnybank area (Sunnybank is on the east end of the county, near Reedville).

The Sheriff’s office recently was alerted to two people in a white minivan with no front license plate who had attempted to lure two children into the van. The children got away safely. Officers were able to obtain detailed descriptions of the individuals.


The driver was a white male 50 to 70 years old, average height and weight, wearing a brownish colored shirt and a baseball cap with longer hair tucked into the hat. He had a long beard that was brown near his chin and faded as it went down, missing front teeth and a scar on his left cheek. He had a black wedding band on.


The female was described being in her 50’s and of small frame. Wearing a purple shirt and blue jeans, bob styled hair cut with dirty blonde hair color. She was also missing front teeth. She had a large purple ring on her middle finger.

If you see vehicle or individuals matching this description please contact the Sheriff’s office at 804-580-5221.

Watch your mailbox

We have put in the mail to everyone an announcement of our outdoor annual meeting to be held on September 26, 1:00 PM, in the picnic area at the west end of Potomac Drive — a few notices were not mailed, but will be hand-delivered.

First, we need to apologize for a typo in the letter announcing the annual meeting. The letter refers to our “202 annual meeting” — which, of course, should be our “2020 annual meeting”. Sorry for the error — it’s a long story.

The letter you will receive includes:
— a letter announcing the 2020 annual meeting;
— a proxy form for those who cannot attend;
— a roster verification form on which to correct your information on our roster
— documents: last fiscal year financial statement, current fiscal year budget,and, required reports (water system and construction);
— a return envelope to return the proxy form and the roster form, if needed.

Remnants of Hurricane Laura will bring rain and wind Saturday, Aug 29

The remnants of Hurricane Laura are projected to arrive in our area Saturday morning and be gone by Saturday evening.  The AccuWeather forecast is:

  • Winds and rain from remnants of Hurricane Laura will arrive around 11:00 AM, Saturday, August 29; and depart after 6:00 PM.
  • Rainfall expected:  0.26 inch
  • Sustained winds:  15 MPH
  • Gusts to:  20-40 MPH

Our other neighbors: Birds, Fox, Coyote

You may have noticed that the big 14-acre common area behind the homes on Potomac Drive was mowed Saturday for the first time since April.

Previously this area was cut (bush-hogged) four times a year: In mid-May; before July 4; before Labor Day; and late-October-early-November.

In 2019, one of our folks pointed out that the big common area appears to be a nesting ground for Eastern Meadowlarks and by cutting the area in the mid-summer, we were destroying nests and young birds. The Board decided to cut the big area before April 15 and after August 15, the start and end of the Meadowlarks’ nesting season.

We had the area cut just before April 15 this year. In June and July, some of us occasionally spotted a pair of Meadowlarks on the edge of the tall grass, in addition to hearing their calls from time to time.

After the area was cut last Saturday, Jim Robinson – who cuts the area – reported he flushed two adult birds and three almost-grown birds. His description was of the Eastern Meadowlark. Today (Monday) one of our neighbors drove across the big common area and flushed what must have been the same birds – two adult and three almost-grown juveniles, clearly Eastern Meadowlarks.

Because these birds return to their nesting areas year after year, we may see an increase in their population next year.

Our population of Northern Quail (Bob-White Quail) seems to be down this year. Typically we hear four or five birds whistling from various parts of the neighborhood. This year we have heard only two – maybe three – different birds calling and no one has reported the occasional sighting of an adult quail being followed by a dozen or so little birds.

For those of you new to the neighborhood, our county is home to Red and Grey Fox as well as coyotes. Local hunters tell us that they are seeing fewer fox and more coyote; coyotes are known to kill young foxes. If you see what looks like dog tracks and dog droppings on your property, it’s likely coyotes roaming around, though they tend to avoid occupied areas.

We are beginning to see this year’s deer fawns. If you are in a wooded or grassy area and find a spotted fawn curled up in the grass, do not touch the fawn, get away from it and by all means keep dogs away. The mother doe likely has left the fawn there while she feeds or goes for water – the fawn is not abandoned.

Results of Tropical Storm Isaias

Our neighborhood did not suffer damage from Tropical Storm Isaias other than small tree limbs down, lots of water in lawns and the roadway, and loss of electrical power.

The main part of the storm moved in around 2:00 AM Tuesday bringing with it high wind and heavy rain.  By 10:00 AM, the storm had departed, skies were mostly clear, temperature was in mid-70’s and humidity was low but rising.

Total rainfall in our neighborhood was over 5 inches.

Highest wind gust measured here was 38 MPH.

Electrical power was lost around 9:45 when a tree fell over Newman’s Neck Road, about a quarter mile outside our subdivision.  The tree took down the two power lines that serve our neighborhood.  As of 2:00 PM, we are still without power.

You can check the status of power outages in our area here on the Northern Neck Electric Co-op Outage Viewer.

TORNADO WARNINGS, STORM WARNINGS

The National Weather Service in Wakefield VA has issued a tornado alert and a TORNADO WARNING for our area in effect until 6:45 AM. As of 5:00 AM Tuesday, August 4, a tornado was confirmed in the area between Heathsville and Callao moving NW at 55 MPH. Other tornadoes were confirmed in the area of Wicomico Church. As of 6:00 AM, no reports of damage have been received and it does not appear that our neighborhood was affected.

CURRENT TORNADO WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 6:45 AM.

As of 6:30 AM, Tuesday, August 4:

  • Our neighborhood has received 3.75 inches of rain in past 24 hours
  • Rain continues to fall at rate of 2 inches per hour
  • Winds are steady at 12 MPH from the SE with gusts to 30 MPH
  • Storm is located approximately 80 miles SW of us, moving NNE at 28 MPH
  • Storm center will track over or near our neighborhood between 8:00 and 9:00 AM
  • Our neighborhood has not experienced power outages as of 6:30 AM.
  • Our neighborhood is under flash flood warnings that will last until Tuesday night — Wednesday morning, Aug 4-5.

Latest information on Hurricane Tropical Storm Isaias is available from the National Hurricane Center, .

The National Weather Service office in Wakefield, VA posts updated storm information as well as tornado warnings.

The combination of high winds and heavy rains likely will result in downed trees; downed power lines; and, local flooding.

UPDATE:  As of 6:27 AM, tornadoes have been confirmed on the ground near:

  • White Stone — about 25 miles S of us, below Kilmarnock
  • Near Montross in Westmoreland County
  • Near Lancaster Church in Lancaster County

Tropical Storm Isaias will pass through our neighborhood early Tuesday, Aug 3

Tropical Storm Isaias is approaching our neighborhood.  Tropical storm force winds — 39 – 73 MPH — are expected to arrive around 2:00 AM Tuesday, August 3, with heavy rains arriving shortly thereafter.

The following maps are produced by the National Hurricane Center and the Wakefiled, VA, National Weather Service office.


Winds in excess of 40 mph can be expected across the entire warning area. Strongest winds will be closest to the coast with gusts up to 70 mph possible.

[Image of probabilities of 34-kt winds]


Tropical Storm force winds will arrive between 2:00 and 6:00 AM, Tuesday, August 4.

time of arrival graphic


Rainfall amount of 3-6 inches with locally higher amounts as high as 7 inches is possible in the watch area, potentially leading to flash flooding.

[Image of WPC QPF U.S. rainfall potential]


You can check rainfall amounts, wind speed and direction, and temperature for our neighborhood by checking out our neighborhood weather station.  Or, go to WeatherUnderground (wunderground.com) and search for weather station KVAHEATH04.

 


 

Tropical Storm Isaias update: Monday, August 3, 1:00 AM.

Tropical Storm Isaias is projected to drop 4 to 10 inches of rain on our area, accompanied by winds approaching tropical storm strength — 39 MPH or higher.  The storm will affect our area Monday night through Tuesday night, August 3 – 4.

The combination of heavy rain and high winds likely will cause local flooding, trees down, and power outages.

Here are the latest projection maps from the National Hurricane Center.


Rainfall Potential

[Image of WPC QPF U.S. rainfall potential]


Time of arrival of tropical storm winds

time of arrival graphic


Flash flood potential in our area is high

[Image of WPC Flash Flooding/Excessive Rainfall Outlook]


Tuesday likely will be the height of the storm, all day.

cone graphic

To prepare for this storm, please check your property:

  • Remove or tie down outdoor furniture including grills — outdoor furniture, grills, bicycles can be blown around in tropical storm or hurricane force winds, smashing windows and doors and causing other damage.
  • Tie down boats, or, remove the boat from the water and place it in a sheltered location.
  • Ensure all doors and windows are closed and locked, especially those facing the water.
  • Be prepared for electrical outages, possibly lasting a few days.  Our community water system is powered by a backup generator, which means all homes on the community water system will have water even if electrical power is lost.  Homes on individual wells will not have water unless you have a generator to power your well pump.

Tropical Storm Isaias predicted to pass almost directly over our neighborhood, late Monday through early Wednesday, August 3 – 5

The National Hurricane Center projection for the track of Tropical Storm Isaias has shifted more to the west, indicating the storm will track almost directly over our neighborhood beginning late Monday, August 3 and continuing through Tuesday, August 4 or early Wednesday, August 5.

Latest information is on the National Hurricane Center Website.

A detailed storm briefing is available on the Wakefield, VA, National Weather Service website.

Here are the latest track maps.


This map indicates the storm will be on top of our neighborhood by 2:00 PM, Tuesday, August 4.

cone graphic


This maps indicate winds will begin to arrive Monday night, August 3.

time of arrival graphic


This map puts us in the 4 – 6 inch rainfall potential area.  However, as the storm approaches, expect this projection to increase.

[Image of WPC QPF U.S. rainfall potential]


To prepare for this storm, please check your property:

  • Remove or tie down outdoor furniture including grills — outdoor furniture, grills, bicycles can be blown around in tropical storm or hurricane force winds, smashing windows and doors and causing other damage.
  • Tie down boats, or, remove the boat from the water and place it in a sheltered location.
  • Ensure all doors and windows are closed and locked, especially those facing the water.
  • Be prepared for electrical outages, possibly lasting a few days.  Our community water system is powered by a backup generator, which means all homes on the community water system will have water even if electrical power is lost.  Homes on individual wells will not have water unless you have a generator to power your well pump.