Hurricane Florence Update: 2:00 PM, Monday, Sep 10

All projected tracks for Hurricane Florence indicate the storm will make landfall on the SE US coast on Thursday; most likely landfall is on the North Carolina coast.  Our neighborhood likely will experience high wind and heavy rain — this could change if Florence changes direction.  Watch this website for updates.

Here is the latest track from the National Hurricane Center.

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This map shows the probability of tropical storm winds — 39 to 73 MPH.  We are in the30-40 percent probability of tropical storm winds.

[Image of probabilities of 34-kt winds]

The maps below represent US National Weather Service and European Weather Service projections of rainfall amounts.  These are a bit difficult to read, however, our neighborhood is expected to receive 5 to 10 inches of rain for the period Thursday, Sep 13 through Tuesday, September 18.  This could change if Florence changes direction.


Based on these projections, assuming Florence remains on her current track, we will experience high winds and heavy rain over the weekend, Thursday, Sep 13 through Sunday, Sep 16.

Go to this link for checklists from the National Hurricane Center for hurricane preparedness.

While our neighborhood may lose electrical power, our water system has a generator, thus, water supply and pressure will be as usual.

Hurricane Florence update: Sunday, Sep 9, 10:00 PM

Hurricane Florence current track forecast indicates the storm will make landfall along the NC-SC state line Thursday as a major hurricane with winds above 110 MPH.  The map below is copied from the National Hurricane Center and is current as of 5:00 PM EDST, Sunday, Sep 9.

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Note the forecast indicates Florence will decrease to a tropical storm with winds 39 – 73 MPH after making landfall.  Coastal Virginia likely will see high surf, high tides, winds that may gust to as much as 50 MPH, and heavy rain beginning Thursday, Sep 13 and continuing into the weekend, Sep 15-16.

There is always the possibility that Florence could shift slightly to the north, in which case the storm could hit coastal Virginia directly.

We will monitor Florence and provide updates at least once a day until the storm clears.

This map is a 7-day rainfall forecast from NOAA for the period Monday, Sep 10 through Monday, Sep 17.  Our neighborhood is in the area forecast to possibly receive 5 – 10 inches of rain.

Rain from Florence could arrive in central Virginia as early as Thursday, Sep 13, and last into next weekend (Sep 15-16), but how much is the major question at this point.

If Florence stalls over eastern North Carolina or Virginia – which some computer models now suggest – flash flooding will become a serious threat, followed by river flooding.

A faster track could mean more of an inland wind threat, while a slower track would exacerbate the flooding potential. Either way, there may be more than one hazard to deal with.

The latest 7-day rainfall outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration generally shows 5 to 10 inches of rain across the Piedmont region of Virginia by next Sunday night, but higher amounts would occur in localized fashion.

RIP our friend and neighbor “Tink” Seymour

We are sad to report the passing of our long-time friend and neighbor, Walter “Tink” Seymour.  Tink died Saturday morning, September 8, at his home.

He was a good friend and neighbor,  known for his patrols of the neighborhood, checking on everyone’s homes and well-being.

We will announce funeral details when they are available.

Hurricane Florence update: Likely landfall on US East Coast Sep 13-14

The odds of a major hurricane making landfall along the East Coast next week keep growing. Forecast models paint an increasingly grim picture, converging on a track that would have what is currently Tropical Storm Florence making a direct hit as a powerful hurricane somewhere along the Southeast coast.

The National Hurricane Center predicts a dangerous major hurricane near the Southeast coast by late in the week.

Potential U.S. landfall is still several days away — probably between Thursday and Friday, September 13-14— and Florence’s ultimate track and intensity are not yet set in stone, with still a small chance that it meanders just off the East Coast and then curls out to sea.

Here is the latest track from the National Hurricane Center.

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The notations on the map are:

  • H — Hurricane, winds 74 – 100 MPH
  • M — Major Hurricane, winds over 110 MPH

You should begin to make preparations for a major storm.  Even if Florence does not hit us directly, we likely will get high winds and heavy rain — wind speed, rain amount and storm duration will depend on where the storm makes landfall.

Please do the following:

  • Ensure all doors and windows are securely closed and locked.
  • Tie down or store all outside items — lawn furniture, grills (both charcoal and propane), boats, anything else normally in the lawn or on the deck should be put inside, under your deck, or tied down securely.
  • Ensure your boat is well-secured to the lift.  Or, better yet, take the boat out of the water and park boat on trailer.
  • If you have propane, check your tank level and top it up if it’s below 40%.
  • If you have a generator, check it — check oil, check fuel supply, make certain it starts.
  • If you will be in the neighborhood when the storm hits, you should stock up on perishables — milk, bread, other food — the local Food Lion likely will run low beginning a few days before the storm hits.
  • KEEP TRACK OF THE STORM:  Watch this website; check local TV and radio; check the National Hurricane Center website.

You do not need to stock water.  Our water system has a generator that will keep the pumps running in case of power outage.

We will watch the storm and update the website.

Meanwhile, here’s a satellite photo showing Florence plus two other tropical storms that likely will develop into hurricanes.

Hurricane Florence update: Saturday, Sep 8, 5:30 AM

Here is the latest track projection for Hurricane Florence by the National Hurricane Center.

We will monitor Florence and provide regular updates on this website.  If it appears that Florence will affect our neighborhood, we will provide information to property owners via email.

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By 2 AM Tuesday, Sep 11, Florence is projected to be a major hurricane with winds over 110 MPH.  This track indicates Florence could make landfall along the NC-SC coast late on Thursday, Sep 13, continuing into Saturday, Sep 15.

More reporting and forecasts for Florence.  These forecasts project:

  • Winds 145 MPH by 2:00 AM , Thursday, Sep 13
  • Landfall on the NC-SC coast.

This image shows “spaghetti models” for Florence as well as for a newly-formed tropical depression and a new tropical storm, both off the west coast of Africa, possibly headed for the US, the Caribbean, or the Gulf of Mexico.  Note, too, some possible tracks for Florence show the hurricane either (1) making landfall along the NC-VA coast; (2) along the VA coast; or (3) veering to the North or Northeast, missing the US East Coast.

Tropical Storm Florence Spaghetti Model


This satellite photo from the National Hurricane Center shows:

  • Florence
  • A minor tropical depression off the US East Coast (the yellow X)
  • Tropical Depression 9, and,
  • Tropical Storm Helene


Hurricane Florence may — and we stress “may” — threaten US East Coast — we will monitor

As of Wednesday evening, September 5, Hurricane Florence is located in the Atlantic and likely will make landfall on Bermuda.  Some projections show Florence making landfall in our area late next week (Sep 10 – 14 or later).  Here are maps and satellite photos.

This satellite photo shows Florence as of 7:42 PM EDST,  September 5.  Note also another tropical depression has formed off the coast of Africa with 70% chance of developing into a tropical storm within 48 hours.

This graphic from the National Hurricane Center projects that Florence will grow into a major hurricane by Thursday, September 6, and will be in the vicinity of Bermuda by Monday afternoon, September 10.  Major hurricanes are defined as those with sustained winds over 110 MPH.

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This graphic from plots several possible tracks for Florence.     Note that several of these possible tracks indicate Florence could make landfall on the US East Coast somewhere between north Florida/south Georgia and the Chesapeake Bay.  Other tracks project Florence avoiding the East Coast and turning sharply northeast into the North Atlantic.


We will monitor Hurricane Florence and will post updated information over the next few days.
Here is a link to the National Hurricane Center where you can monitor Florence as well as other tropical storms or hurricanes.

UPDATE:  Thursday, Sep 6, 11:00 PM

Hurricane Florence has weakened somewhat, however, the storm is expected to strengthen and regain strength over the weekend.  The point at which Florence will make landfall on the US East Coast is still not clear — in fact, it’s not clear if Florence will hit the East Coast. Florence’s path will become more clear in the next few days.  Meanwhile —

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This graphic from the National Hurricane Center shows Florence weakening to tropical storm status Thursday and Friday, then strengthening to hurricane force, becoming a major hurricane by Tuesday night, Sep 11.

Here are spaghetti models for Florence’s future track.

Florence Spaghetti Models

This spaghetti model accompanies a Newsweek article on Florence.

We will monitor Hurricane Florence and will post updated information over the next few days.
Here is a link to the National Hurricane Center where you can monitor Florence as well as other tropical storms or hurricanes.

Potomac Bay Estates neighborhood picnic: Labor Day weekend

All Potomac Bay Estates property owners are invited!!

  •  Annual PBE Labor Day Picnic
  • 3:00-6:00 p.m.
  • Saturday, September 1, 2018
  • At the common area picnic area, west end of Potomac Drive

Bring the family !! Children and dogs are welcome.

Rain date:  Sunday, Sep. 2, same time, same place.

The Property Owners’ Association will provide the meats – buns – condiments — bottled water and soft drinks.

Please bring:

  • a side dish and/or dessert to share
  • beach chairs, beach games
  • BYOB wine, beer

Family and friends are invited.

There are no jellyfish in the water this year, so, bring swimsuits, kayaks, and other water gear.

PLEASE RSVP — we need a headcount to buy food — reply to our email address:


We had a small but really fun neighborhood picnic on Saturday, September 1, at the picnic area.

Five couples attended:  Michelini, Ross, Houser, Williams and Schlatter.

PBE POA President Dave Williams presented Sue and Ray Michelini with an original painting by our own late Carol Seymour in recognition of their service to the POA.  Ray served as POA President and Board member.  He also guided the beach restoration/bulkhead protection project that resulted in our new breakwaters and observation deck.