Tropical Storm Isaias will pass through our neighborhood early Tuesday, Aug 3

Tropical Storm Isaias is approaching our neighborhood.  Tropical storm force winds — 39 – 73 MPH — are expected to arrive around 2:00 AM Tuesday, August 3, with heavy rains arriving shortly thereafter.

The following maps are produced by the National Hurricane Center and the Wakefiled, VA, National Weather Service office.


Winds in excess of 40 mph can be expected across the entire warning area. Strongest winds will be closest to the coast with gusts up to 70 mph possible.

[Image of probabilities of 34-kt winds]


Tropical Storm force winds will arrive between 2:00 and 6:00 AM, Tuesday, August 4.

time of arrival graphic


Rainfall amount of 3-6 inches with locally higher amounts as high as 7 inches is possible in the watch area, potentially leading to flash flooding.

[Image of WPC QPF U.S. rainfall potential]


You can check rainfall amounts, wind speed and direction, and temperature for our neighborhood by checking out our neighborhood weather station.  Or, go to WeatherUnderground (wunderground.com) and search for weather station KVAHEATH04.

 


 

Tropical Storm Isaias update: Monday, August 3, 1:00 AM.

Tropical Storm Isaias is projected to drop 4 to 10 inches of rain on our area, accompanied by winds approaching tropical storm strength — 39 MPH or higher.  The storm will affect our area Monday night through Tuesday night, August 3 – 4.

The combination of heavy rain and high winds likely will cause local flooding, trees down, and power outages.

Here are the latest projection maps from the National Hurricane Center.


Rainfall Potential

[Image of WPC QPF U.S. rainfall potential]


Time of arrival of tropical storm winds

time of arrival graphic


Flash flood potential in our area is high

[Image of WPC Flash Flooding/Excessive Rainfall Outlook]


Tuesday likely will be the height of the storm, all day.

cone graphic

To prepare for this storm, please check your property:

  • Remove or tie down outdoor furniture including grills — outdoor furniture, grills, bicycles can be blown around in tropical storm or hurricane force winds, smashing windows and doors and causing other damage.
  • Tie down boats, or, remove the boat from the water and place it in a sheltered location.
  • Ensure all doors and windows are closed and locked, especially those facing the water.
  • Be prepared for electrical outages, possibly lasting a few days.  Our community water system is powered by a backup generator, which means all homes on the community water system will have water even if electrical power is lost.  Homes on individual wells will not have water unless you have a generator to power your well pump.

Tropical Storm Isaias predicted to pass almost directly over our neighborhood, late Monday through early Wednesday, August 3 – 5

The National Hurricane Center projection for the track of Tropical Storm Isaias has shifted more to the west, indicating the storm will track almost directly over our neighborhood beginning late Monday, August 3 and continuing through Tuesday, August 4 or early Wednesday, August 5.

Latest information is on the National Hurricane Center Website.

A detailed storm briefing is available on the Wakefield, VA, National Weather Service website.

Here are the latest track maps.


This map indicates the storm will be on top of our neighborhood by 2:00 PM, Tuesday, August 4.

cone graphic


This maps indicate winds will begin to arrive Monday night, August 3.

time of arrival graphic


This map puts us in the 4 – 6 inch rainfall potential area.  However, as the storm approaches, expect this projection to increase.

[Image of WPC QPF U.S. rainfall potential]


To prepare for this storm, please check your property:

  • Remove or tie down outdoor furniture including grills — outdoor furniture, grills, bicycles can be blown around in tropical storm or hurricane force winds, smashing windows and doors and causing other damage.
  • Tie down boats, or, remove the boat from the water and place it in a sheltered location.
  • Ensure all doors and windows are closed and locked, especially those facing the water.
  • Be prepared for electrical outages, possibly lasting a few days.  Our community water system is powered by a backup generator, which means all homes on the community water system will have water even if electrical power is lost.  Homes on individual wells will not have water unless you have a generator to power your well pump.

Hurricane Isaias UPDATE: 11:30 AM, Saturday, August 1

The projected track for Hurricane Isaias has moved slightly to the west, which indicates we will experience high wind and rain from the storm throughout Monday and Tuesday, August 3 and 4.

The following three maps show the latest (1) wind arrival times, (2) rainfall projections, and (3) storm track as projected by the National Hurricane Center.


 

time of arrival graphic


 

[Image of WPC QPF U.S. rainfall potential]


 

cone graphic


Follow the course of Isaias on the National Hurricane Center website.

To prepare for this storm, please check your property:

  • Remove or tie down outdoor furniture including grills — outdoor furniture, grills, bicycles can be blown around in tropical storm or hurricane force winds, smashing windows and doors and causing other damage.
  • Tie down boats, or, remove the boat from the water and place it in a sheltered location.
  • Ensure all doors and windows are closed and locked, especially those facing the water.
  • Be prepared for electrical outages, possibly lasting a few days.  Our community water system is powered by a backup generator, which means all homes on the community water system will have water even if electrical power is lost.  Homes on individual wells will not have water unless you have a generator to power your well pump.

 

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Isaias update: 7:00 PM, Friday, July 31

Hurricane Isaias continues to track toward the US East Coast and is projected to turn to the NNE, tracking along the coastline from Florida into New England.  See the latest hurricane information on the National Hurricane Center website.

The storm is expected to affect our neighborhood beginning Monday morning, August 3, and leave our area late Tuesday, August 4.

These following three maps show:

  • Anticipated time of arrival for storm winds
  • Current rainfall projections.  As the storm progresses this likely will change with use receiving more rain than currently indicated.
  • Projected storm track.  An “H” in a black circle indicates hurricane (winds over 73 MPH); an “S” in a black circle indicates tropical storm winds (39 – 73 MPH).

time of arrival graphic



 

Rainfall amount projections.  Look for the rainfall projected for our neighborhood to increase as the storm approaches.

[Image of WPC QPF U.S. rainfall potential]



Probably path of storm center.  The area shaded in white dots is the area likely to be affected by the storm, including wind and rain.

cone graphic

Here is the latest briefing from the National Weather Service, Wakefield VA.

Finally, here is information on where to find NOAA weather radio on your weather radio receiver or scanner.

CALLSIGN SITE NAME FREQUENCY STATUS WFO
KHB36 Manassas 162.550 NORMAL Baltimore/Washington VA
KHB37 Norfolk 162.550 NORMAL Wakefield VA
KJY86 South Boston 162.525 NORMAL Blacksburg VA
KJY99 Accomack 162.525 NORMAL Wakefield VA
KZZ28 Covesville 162.450 NORMAL Baltimore/Washington VA
WXK65 Richmond 162.475 NORMAL Wakefield VA
WXL60 Roanoke 162.475 NORMAL Blacksburg VA
WXL92 Lynchburg 162.550 NORMAL Blacksburg VA
WXM57 Heathsville 162.400 NORMAL Wakefield VA
WZ2500 Sand Mtn 162.450 NORMAL Blacksburg VA
WZ2527 Fredericksburg 162.425 NORMAL Baltimore/Washington VA
WZ2543 Richlands 162.425 NORMAL Blacksburg VA

STORM WARNING: Poss severe weather, August 3-4

As of early Friday, July 31, Hurricane Isaias is passing over Eastern Cuba and is predicted to move up the US East Coast.

Current projections show tropical storm force winds possibly affecting our neighborhood Monday and Tuesday, August 3-4.

Tropical storm winds are 39 – 73 MPH.  Because wind circulation around hurricanes and tropical storms is counter-clockwise, when hurricanes or tropical storms move up the East Coast, winds affecting our neighborhood blow directly across the Chesapeake Bay, from the Northeast.

We will post more weather advisories as projections become more specific.  Meanwhile, the maps below show projections for Isaias as of 8:00 AM, Friday, July 31.   Note that current projections show Isaias affecting our neighborhood Monday and Tuesday, August 3 and 4.

time of arrival graphic

The map above indicates tropical-storm-force winds will arrive in our area during the day Monday, August 3, departing Tuesday, August 4.


cone graphic

The map above indicates Isaias will be a hurricane when it passes off-shore, affecting our neighborhood Tuesday, August 4.

Follow the course of Isaias on the National Hurricane Center website.

To prepare for this storm, please check your property:

  • Remove or tie down outdoor furniture including grills — outdoor furniture, grills, bicycles can be blown around in tropical storm or hurricane force winds, smashing windows and doors and causing other damage.
  • Tie down boats, or, remove the boat from the water and place it in a sheltered location.
  • Ensure all doors and windows are closed and locked, especially those facing the water.
  • Be prepared for electrical outages, possibly lasting a few days.  Our community water system is powered by a backup generator, which means all homes on the community water system will have water even if electrical power is lost.  Homes on individual wells will not have water unless you have a generator to power your well pump.

 

President’s letter

Potomac Bay Estates Property Owners’ Association President Dave Williams sends this letter to all property owners to provide updated information about Association business and current projects.

Please follow this link for a copy of Dave’s letter:   LETTER TO PBE POA_0530_Wms (3)

The documents listed below are reports and documents that accompany Dave’s letter.

 

Bulkhead stabilization project progress report

Frank Goyette, Project Officer for our bulkhead stabilization project, filed this report for the week of June 1 – 5.

A lot was accomplished this week:

Two loads of rip rap were delivered which was more than enough to fill the two gabion baskets that have been placed between the downriver spur and the breakwater. The gabions were also wire closed.

A load of armor stone was delivered which was enough to fill the toe of the scour protection.  Seventy running feet of filter cloth was placed from the whale of the bulkhead to river bottom and eight feet outward covering the bottom of the toe.  The remainder of the riprap left over after filling the gabion baskets was placed against the base of the bulkhead forming a core of the scour protection.

Depending on available delivery, another four loads of armor stone will be delivered and installed next week.

After that is completed, the grading and building of the behind the bulkhead berm will be done followed by seeding and over laying with (straw) germination blanket.  I have purchased Bermuda grass seed that will be mixed with the contractor mix grass seed.  The contractor mix is a quick green mix which should give us cover quickly.  The Bermuda seed will germinate latter but is more salt and drought tolerant.

Joe and I have also been working on building a concrete catch basin/culvert end to insure unobstructed water flow away from the bulkhead and common area through the under road culvert and out to the creek.  We expect to finish it this week to coincide with the final grading.

Frank

Weather notice through the end of the week, May 23, 2020.

Attached is an updated briefing from National Weather Service Wakefield, VA as of  3:00 PM, Tuesday, May 19, 2020, highlighting the expected weather conditions through the end of this week, May 23.

Key highlights include:

  • Minor tidal flooding will begin with this evening’s high tide cycle, with water levels continuing to rise into Wednesday and Thursday.
  • Moderate to major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet above ground level) is expected for areas adjacent to the Chesapeake Bay and major tidal rivers beginning Wednesday and continuing through at least Thursday night. Minor to moderate tidal is expected along the Atlantic Ocean facing beaches.
  • Wind gusts of 30-40 knots/seas of 8-12 feet are expected across the coastal waters and the lower Chesapeake Bay. Winds will be strongest this afternoon through Wednesday morning.
  • High surf and large breaking waves will result in localized beach erosion along the immediate coast.
  • While widespread flooding rain is not expected locally this week, heavy rain over the mountains will eventually cause river levels to rise later in the week with some river flooding possible by this weekend.

Please continue to monitor forecasts throughout the week using the links below: