Storm update – Sep 6

As of 7:45 AM, Friday, Sep 6, our neighborhood is experiencing wind and rain associated with Hurricane/Tropical Storm Dorian — wind and rain are expected to continue until Friday night.  Northumberland County schools are closed.

Our current conditions:

  • Wind from northeast (blowing off the Bay) at 12-14 MPH with gusts to 21-25 MPH.
  • Rain showers with accumulation since midnight of 0.05 inches
  • We are under tropical storm warning until 1:15 PM, Friday
  • The National Weather Service has issued a flood warning for low-lying areas of our county until early Sunday morning, Sep 8

While it does not appear we will experience severe wind or rain, we likely will experience downed tree limbs, possible power outages, and some minor flooding in low-lying areas.

Here is a link to our neighborhood weather station.

Here is a link to Virginia weather radar.


Storm update — Sep 5

As of 4:00 PM, EDST, Thursday, Sep 5, here is the latest on Hurricane Dorian’s impact on our neighborhood.

Wind and cloud cover arrived in our neighborhood before dawn Thursday.  Winds have been steady at 3-7 MPH with gusts to 12 MPH, out of the ENE (wind blowing from the Bay).

The latest information from the National Hurricane Center indicates we will have wind and rain from Thursday night into Friday night with Friday being the worst conditions.

The latest National Weather Service forecast for our neighborhood calls for increasing wind and rain Thursday night-Friday morning.  For Friday, we can expect 2-4 inches of rain; winds steady at 10-15 MPH with gusts to 20-plus MPH.

However, the National Hurricane Center maps show our area as being under tropical storm warning with winds possibly reaching 30 MPH or higher.

Northumberland County schools will be closed Friday, Sep 6.

Here are the relevant NHC maps.

[Image of probabilities of 34-kt winds]

cone graphic

time of arrival graphic

[Image of WPC QPF U.S. rainfall potential]

Hurricane Dorian update, Sep 3, 2:00 PM

We had a meeting of the County Emergency Services Committee this morning for a conference call with Virginia Dept of Emergency Management (VDEM).  Here is their report for our area.

The storm is expected to be around South Carolina tomorrow.  The storm is expected to turn more to the Northeast over the coming days.  Unless it takes a more westerly turn, we should mostly see expanding wind fields in our area, with tropical storm winds in the 30-40 mph range beginning Thursday afternoon/evening and into Friday. 

  • Gusts could be in the 45 mph range. 
  • Rain amounts could be 2-4 inches. 
  • There is a possibility of coastal flooding north of Windmill Point. 
  • In the Hampton Roads area, the winds are expected to be in the 35-45 mph range, with 60 mph gusts possible.  Rain totals may reach 3-6 inches with moderate coastal flooding.

VDEM and the Governor’s Office will try to make a decision on evacuation tomorrow morning.  If there is any evacuation, it will most likely be for areas below Windmill Point.

In Northumberland County, we currently have no plans to open a shelter.  We will monitor the situation closely for changes in Dorian’s track.

The most recent information about the hurricane can be found on the National Hurricane Center website.


Hurricane Dorian Update — Sep 2

As of early afternoon, Monday, Sep 2, here are the latest tracks for Hurricane Dorian from the National Hurricane Center.

In summary, it appears that our neighborhood will feel only minimal effects from the storm, however, we should continue to watch the weather as hurricanes can change track and intensity over time.

  • Winds from Dorian will arrive here late Wednesday and will be with us through Friday.
  • We are in the area for potential of over 20 MPH winds.
  • We are in the area for potential of 2 or more inches of rain.

time of arrival graphic


[Image of probabilities of 34-kt winds]


cone graphic




[Image of WPC QPF U.S. rainfall potential]





Hurricane Dorian may affect our neighborhood

As of 10:30 AM, EDST, Sunday, Sep 1:  Current tracks indicate winds from Hurricane Dorian may arrive in our neighborhood Wednesday, Sep 4.  Rainfall potential is minimal.

NOTICE:  As with any hurricane, the track may shift and predictions may change with short notice.

  • We will monitor the National Hurricane Center  (NHC) website and post their information here.
  • We recommend you monitor the NHC website.
  • We will post updated information here.

Here is the latest information from the NHC showing projected arrival time of tropical storm force winds (under 73 MPH)  winds.

time of arrival graphic

This map shows the projected storm track.  The indicators in black circles — M, H, S — indicate Major hurricane (winds over 110 MPH), Hurricane (74 – 110 MPH), tropical Storm (39-73 MPH).

cone graphic

This map shows current projections of rainfall potential.  NOTICE:  We are on the edge of 1 to 4 inches of rain, HOWEVER, this can change as the storm progresses up the coast.

[Image of WPC QPF U.S. rainfall potential]










If you will not be in the neighborhood this week, you should ensure your property is secure.

  • All doors and windows closed and locked.
  • All outdoor furniture, grills, and the like tied down, or, stored in the garage.  Even fairly large items can be blown around by high winds, causing a lot of damage.
  • Boat secured, or, moved out of the area.


Board of Directors meeting announcement

The Potomac Bay Estates Property Owners’ Association Board of Directors will meet:

  • Friday, September 13
  • 1:00 PM
  • 4142 Newman’s Neck Road (Williams’ residence)

Board meetings are open to POA members.  An agenda will be posted later.