Hurricane Florence update: Wednesday, Sep 12, 7:00 AM

According to the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Florence will turn slightly south and, after making landfall on the NC-SC coast Thursday morning, it will turn west — which is good news for us.

Here is the latest NHC tracking map.  Note that as the storm tracks to the west, the area of influence moves away from us.

cone graphic

This map shows we are now in the area of 2 to 4 inches of rain.

[Image of WPC QPF U.S. rainfall potential]









Hurricane Florence update: 11:00 PM, Tuesday, Sep 11

The latest Hurricane Florence track posted by the National Hurricane Center is good news for our neighborhood, while it continues to be terrible news for coastal residents of NC and SC.

cone graphic

According to this track, Florence will turn due west after making landfall and its effects on us will be minimal, although we likely will have heavy rain and high winds.

Hurricane Florence update — 9:00 PM, Tuesday, Sep 11

Hurricane Florence update as of 9:00 PM, Tuesday, Sep 11.

Latest projections are fairly good news for us as it appears Florence may turn westward upon making landfall, which will move the worst of the storm well away from us.  Still, we expect a lot of rain and fairly high winds beginning Thursday.

All maps shown below are from the National Hurricane Center.

Here is the latest track for Hurricane Florence from the National Hurricane Center.  This track shows the storm will veer slightly south and head almost due west after making landfall — which is good news for us.

cone graphic

This map of rainfall potential shows our neighborhood in the 4-6 inch rainfall band.

[Image of WPC QPF U.S. rainfall potential]










This map indicates we have only a 30% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds (39 – 73 MPH).[Image of probabilities of 34-kt winds]

Finally, this is the current weather forecast for Heathsville VA for the period Wednesday, Sep 12, through Monday, Sep 17.

The columns are:  Date; General forecast for the day;  Hi/Lo temp; Chance of precipitation; Sustained wind speed and direction from which the wind is coming; Average humidity


SEP 12

AM Thunderstorms
84° 73°
E 6 mph 82%


SEP 13

81° 74°
ENE 12 mph 89%


SEP 14

79° 73°
ENE 17 mph 89%


SEP 15

78° 72°
ENE 19 mph 91%


SEP 16

79° 73°
E 13 mph 90%


SEP 17

AM Showers
82° 72°
SE 11 mph 84%

Hurricane Florence Update: 2:00 PM, Monday, Sep 10

All projected tracks for Hurricane Florence indicate the storm will make landfall on the SE US coast on Thursday; most likely landfall is on the North Carolina coast.  Our neighborhood likely will experience high wind and heavy rain — this could change if Florence changes direction.  Watch this website for updates.

Here is the latest track from the National Hurricane Center.

cone graphic

This map shows the probability of tropical storm winds — 39 to 73 MPH.  We are in the30-40 percent probability of tropical storm winds.

[Image of probabilities of 34-kt winds]

The maps below represent US National Weather Service and European Weather Service projections of rainfall amounts.  These are a bit difficult to read, however, our neighborhood is expected to receive 5 to 10 inches of rain for the period Thursday, Sep 13 through Tuesday, September 18.  This could change if Florence changes direction.


Based on these projections, assuming Florence remains on her current track, we will experience high winds and heavy rain over the weekend, Thursday, Sep 13 through Sunday, Sep 16.

Go to this link for checklists from the National Hurricane Center for hurricane preparedness.

While our neighborhood may lose electrical power, our water system has a generator, thus, water supply and pressure will be as usual.

Hurricane Florence update: Sunday, Sep 9, 10:00 PM

Hurricane Florence current track forecast indicates the storm will make landfall along the NC-SC state line Thursday as a major hurricane with winds above 110 MPH.  The map below is copied from the National Hurricane Center and is current as of 5:00 PM EDST, Sunday, Sep 9.

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Note the forecast indicates Florence will decrease to a tropical storm with winds 39 – 73 MPH after making landfall.  Coastal Virginia likely will see high surf, high tides, winds that may gust to as much as 50 MPH, and heavy rain beginning Thursday, Sep 13 and continuing into the weekend, Sep 15-16.

There is always the possibility that Florence could shift slightly to the north, in which case the storm could hit coastal Virginia directly.

We will monitor Florence and provide updates at least once a day until the storm clears.

This map is a 7-day rainfall forecast from NOAA for the period Monday, Sep 10 through Monday, Sep 17.  Our neighborhood is in the area forecast to possibly receive 5 – 10 inches of rain.

Rain from Florence could arrive in central Virginia as early as Thursday, Sep 13, and last into next weekend (Sep 15-16), but how much is the major question at this point.

If Florence stalls over eastern North Carolina or Virginia – which some computer models now suggest – flash flooding will become a serious threat, followed by river flooding.

A faster track could mean more of an inland wind threat, while a slower track would exacerbate the flooding potential. Either way, there may be more than one hazard to deal with.

The latest 7-day rainfall outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration generally shows 5 to 10 inches of rain across the Piedmont region of Virginia by next Sunday night, but higher amounts would occur in localized fashion.

RIP our friend and neighbor “Tink” Seymour

We are sad to report the passing of our long-time friend and neighbor, Walter “Tink” Seymour.  Tink died Saturday morning, September 8, at his home.

He was a good friend and neighbor,  known for his patrols of the neighborhood, checking on everyone’s homes and well-being.

We will announce funeral details when they are available.

Hurricane Florence update: Likely landfall on US East Coast Sep 13-14

The odds of a major hurricane making landfall along the East Coast next week keep growing. Forecast models paint an increasingly grim picture, converging on a track that would have what is currently Tropical Storm Florence making a direct hit as a powerful hurricane somewhere along the Southeast coast.

The National Hurricane Center predicts a dangerous major hurricane near the Southeast coast by late in the week.

Potential U.S. landfall is still several days away — probably between Thursday and Friday, September 13-14— and Florence’s ultimate track and intensity are not yet set in stone, with still a small chance that it meanders just off the East Coast and then curls out to sea.

Here is the latest track from the National Hurricane Center.

cone graphic

The notations on the map are:

  • H — Hurricane, winds 74 – 100 MPH
  • M — Major Hurricane, winds over 110 MPH

You should begin to make preparations for a major storm.  Even if Florence does not hit us directly, we likely will get high winds and heavy rain — wind speed, rain amount and storm duration will depend on where the storm makes landfall.

Please do the following:

  • Ensure all doors and windows are securely closed and locked.
  • Tie down or store all outside items — lawn furniture, grills (both charcoal and propane), boats, anything else normally in the lawn or on the deck should be put inside, under your deck, or tied down securely.
  • Ensure your boat is well-secured to the lift.  Or, better yet, take the boat out of the water and park boat on trailer.
  • If you have propane, check your tank level and top it up if it’s below 40%.
  • If you have a generator, check it — check oil, check fuel supply, make certain it starts.
  • If you will be in the neighborhood when the storm hits, you should stock up on perishables — milk, bread, other food — the local Food Lion likely will run low beginning a few days before the storm hits.
  • KEEP TRACK OF THE STORM:  Watch this website; check local TV and radio; check the National Hurricane Center website.

You do not need to stock water.  Our water system has a generator that will keep the pumps running in case of power outage.

We will watch the storm and update the website.

Meanwhile, here’s a satellite photo showing Florence plus two other tropical storms that likely will develop into hurricanes.